The Last Dance would lose its odd grip on the number one spot at the box office the minute a big studio tentpole popped into the mix. Turns out it didn’t take a huge franchise film—or even a relatively successful entry—at all: just a floppy Christmas clunker spurred on by some crazy CGI snowmen and (confirmed) bottle-peeing rumors.

The box office languished this fall after a record-breaking summer, though the trifecta of “Wicked,” “Gladiator II” and “Moana 2” are expected to be big hits this month.

It’s beginning to look a lot like $30 million for the opening weekend of Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans’ mega-budget Christmas actioner “Red One,” coming in on the shorter side of projections. The Amazon MGM Studios feature unwrapped $10.